Going to Mars

On June 4, 2010 Space Exploration Technologies Corporation, better known as SpaceX, launched their Falcon 9 rocket for the first time. The flight successfully placed its upper stage into orbit. The corporation had only been in existence for seven years. In that brief time, they designed two new rockets from scratch, along with their rocket engines. And SpaceX spent only 300 million dollars and became profitable. In 2006, NASA awarded SpaceX a 1.2 billion dollar contract to launch twelve cargo missions to the International Space Station. They will get paid bit by bit for each successful mission.

About six months after the Falcon 9’s maiden voyage, on December 8, 2010, SpaceX launched their Dragon capsule into orbit. It circled the Earth twice and safely parachuted to a water landing. It was the first time a private corporation had launched an object into orbit and recovered it safely.

Since then, SpaceX has sent three Dragons to the International Space Station. Out of five launches of the Falcon 9, there have been 5 successes.

The launch vehicle for the Dragon cargo spaceship is the Falcon 9, a two stage rocket that uses 9 Merlin engines in the first stage and one Merlin engine in the second stage. Each engine develops 125,000 pounds of thrust at sea level. Thus, a Falcon 9 can put 23,000 pounds into low earth orbit, or 10,000 pounds into geo-synchronous orbit. A Falcon 9 stands 178 feet tall at launch and has a diameter of 12 feet.

SpaceX is currently manufacturing one new Falcon 9 and one new Dragon spaceship every three months. The number of people working for SpaceX stands at about 1100 and the company is hiring. In addition to contracts with NASA, SpaceX has secured contracts for multiple satellite launches for the next ten years from a variety of nations and corporations.

Elon Musk, the founder and CEO of SpaceX has long term goals for his company beyond simply supplying the space station with cargo. He also has plans to make all parts of his Falcon 9 rocket reusable and intends to develop heavy lift versions of the Falcon 9. The first of these, the Falcon 9 Heavy, is scheduled for its first launch in late 2013 or early 2014. It will take off from Vandenberg Air Force Base, where SpaceX has nearly finished building a launch complex for it. The Falcon 9 Heavy will be able to deliver a Dragon spaceship to the surface of Mars. It is able to carry twice the weight that the Space Shuttle could.

SpaceX has a goal of making their rockets fully reusable. By making all parts of the Falcon 9 reusable, Musk hopes to drive down launch costs even more than he already has. He pointed out that commercial air travel would not be economically feasible if a jet airliner could only be used once and then had to be thrown away. If space ships can become fully reusable, the cost of spaceflight will drop precipitously, so that the primary costs of going into space will then be the cost of fuel, maintenance, and the salaries of the workers involved—similar to the cost structure for commercial aviation.

Even today, with the Falcon 9 still not being reusable, SpaceX is able to put things in orbit for much less than any other company. In fact, SpaceX currently undercuts even the Chinese launch systems by such a margin that the Chinese government is unable to compete. Once reusability come online in the next few years, SpaceX will be the cheapest way to fly. The first test of a reusable Falcon 9 first stage should occur later this year, when on regular cargo run to the space station, SpaceX will attempt a powered landing of the first stage over water.

The Dragon spaceship is not designed to simply loft cargo. It is designed to carry seven astronauts. Elon Musk’s long term goals, stated since he founded the company in 2002, is to make possible the colonization of Mars and the expansion of humanity throughout the solar system. Because of those goals, SpaceX is not a publically traded corporation. Musk doesn’t want to have to justify his choices to stockholders.

Although SpaceX is profitable, Musk has stated that if he were just trying to make money, he wouldn’t be building rockets. Someone once said that the best way to make a million dollars is rocketry is to start out with a billion.

Musk intends to land the first people on Mars by 2030. He has predicted that by 2050 a family of four will be able to emigrate to Mars as colonists for about what they would spend on buying an average suburban house. He figures that’s about the equivalent of what those migrating in wagon trains from the east to California invested back in the 1800s.

Not everyone will want to become Martian colonists, of course—any more than everyone in the east wanted to come to California in 1849. But Musk believes that enough will go to make the venture a success.

For Elon Musk, every launch of a Falcon 9 is one more step on a long road to the exploitation of the solar system and its colonization by humanity—not by the government, but by private enterprise.

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Cuneiform

A few years ago my wife and I took a vacation to visit some friends living in the Seattle area. On our way up we stopped at various tourist attractions. In San Jose, we visited the Winchester Mystery House, built by Sarah Winchester, the widow of William Wirt Winchester, the man who made his fortune selling the firearms that still bear his name. The story goes that a Boston medium told Sarah Winchester that she had to leave her home in New Haven and travel west, where she must “build a home for yourself and for the spirits who have fallen from this terrible weapon, too. You must never stop building the house. If you continue building, you will live forever. But if you stop, then you will die.” So she made it a point to build a house that would never be finished. Workmen were kept busy making modifications and additions to her home until the day she died in 1922. At which point, all work on the house ceased. The house is an enormous, ramshackle affair. There are stairways and doors that lead nowhere and rooms that serve no purpose. Today it is a tourist attraction and so my wife and I spent an afternoon gawking at its oddities.

Another place we visited was nearby, also in San Jose: the Rosicrucian Egyptian Museum and Planetarium. I knew very little about the Rosicrucians, outside of what I could discern from their odd advertisements in the back pages of the science fiction and popular science magazines I read. As a result of their beliefs, they have a fascination for all things Egyptian and Ancient Near Eastern. And so their museum contains one of the largest and best collections of ancient Egyptian and Near Eastern artifacts in the world. It was filled with mummies and artwork, sarcophaguses, funeral urns, and papyrus manuscripts.

What I was particularly looking forward to seeing, however, was their collection of cuneiform tablets. I’d known about them long before we arrived at the museum, since the language of the ancient Assyrians and Babylonians was one I had studied extensively when I was doing my graduate work in ancient Semitic languages at UCLA. While there, I’d seen photographs and read copies of some of those tablets housed by the Rosicrucians.

The tablets in the Rosicrucian museum were mostly small enough to fit the hand of a child. They were usually gray or tan, and roughly pillow shaped—and covered with the cuneiform writing system that the Babylonians and Assyrians had borrowed from the Sumerians. At UCLA my classmates and I joked that the cuneiform writing system had been developed just to frustrate twentieth century graduate students. More likely, it survived the advent of the alphabet so that Mesopotamian scribes alone would be able to read it—and thus enjoy permanent job security.

So I happily peered into the glass cases in the museum to see if I could read some of the tablets. I found that I could, but I also found myself startled. Several of the tablets were upside down!

That’s right. In a museum dedicated to Egyptian and Ancient Near Eastern artifacts, the curators had not been careful to see to it that the tablets were displayed right side up.

Admittedly, this probably had never before been a source of embarrassment for the museum. After all, how many visitors would ever realize that they were upside down—or care?

I did let one of the guides know about the problem, but she didn’t seem particularly interested or concerned. I don’t know if anything was ever done about the upside down tablets. I have not had the opportunity to go back since.

Things being upside down is not a problem unique to that museum. The astronomy magazine Sky and Telescope not so long ago had an article on astronomy in the ancient world. Some cuneiform writing was used as part of the artwork decorating the article. And—you guessed it—the cuneiform was upside down.

I wrote a letter. I suspect my letter was the only one they ever got on the mistake and I doubt that they much cared. They didn’t publish my letter and they never issued a correction.

While I was at UCLA, my Ugaritic professor brought in a volume of the Encyclopaedia Britannica and pointed out the Ugaritic article in it. He had us look at it carefully and asked us if we noticed anything amiss.

There was a picture of an Ugaritic tablet.

It was upside down.

My professor told us that he had written to them about it, but three more editions of the encyclopedia appeared before Encyclopaedia Britannica got around to turning the picture right side up.

It’s not just obscure languages in museums and encyclopedias that get turned upside down. During the opening credits of the 1999 movie, End of Days—which starred Arnold Schwarzenegger—several sections of text in various languages scroll across the screen. The last section of text was in Hebrew. And it was clearly upside down.

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Tesla Motors

My wife and I are early adopters of new technology and we are both enamored of the electric car company, Tesla. The Tesla Motors, Inc. was founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard, Marc Tarpenning, J.B. Straubel, Ian Wright, and Elon Musk—who is also the founder and CEO of SpaceX, the company that builds and launches the Falcon 9 and Dragon space ship. Tesla is named after Nikola Tesla, the inventor, mechanical engineer, and physicist best known for his contributions to the design of modern alternating current (AC) supply systems. When you switch on a lamp or your television, it’s thanks to Tesla’s work.

Tesla Motors’ cars are fully American designed and produced. It is the first American automobile company to go public since Ford offered stock in 1956. Tesla is now profitable and produces about 500 Tesla Model S cars each week in their factory in Palo Alto, California. They are on track to produce about 21,000 cars in 2013.

At this point I need to offer a full disclosure: I own a small amount of stock in Tesla Motors. The reason I own the stock is because I like the company and I believe that it will be successful. So far, I’m very happy with how the stock has performed over the last few months. In fact, my only regret is that I don’t own more of it since it tripled in price since the beginning of the year.

The Tesla Model S is a full-sized four door sedan. It has an EPA estimated range of 265 miles on a charge. Based on the cost of electricity in the average American home, the fuel cost of driving 30,000 miles in a Tesla is about 950 dollars. The equivalent cost for a gasoline powered car to travel the same distance is about 3800 dollars (assuming $3.80 per gallon and 30 miles per gallon). The Tesla Model S motor generates between 362 and 415 horsepower (depending on options) and can accelerate from zero to 60 MPH in between 4.2 to 5.9 seconds (also depending on options). The engine is about the size of a large watermelon and sits on the axel between the rear tires. There is no transmission and no radiator. One never needs to get a smog check or an oil change. The brakes are good for at least 100,000 miles. Tesla guarantees its resale value and the batteries are fully warrantied for 8 years (unless, as the company said, you take a blowtorch to them). It can carry 5 adults and 2 children and has two trunks, one in the front and one in the back.

The Tesla Model S is Motor Trend’s 2013 Car of the Year and Automobile Magazine’s 2013 Car of the Year. After testing the Tesla Model S, Consumer Reports gave it 99 points out of 100, tying for the highest number of points they have ever given to a car. They also wrote that it was the best car they had ever tested.

Tesla is currently installing what they call “Supercharger” Stations across the country. These are “filling stations” to recharge the batteries on a Tesla in about 20 minutes. How much does it cost to recharge the batteries at a Tesla Supercharger Station? Nothing at all. Charging the battery is completely free. Most of the Supercharger Stations run on solar energy and they generate more power than they need for recharging cars. So Tesla can send the excess power to the electric grid and actually gets paid by the electric company.

By the end of 2013 Tesla will have installed enough Superchargers around the United States that it will be possible to travel from Los Angeles to New York and pay exactly nothing in fuel costs. Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO explained “pack some food, stay with friends or family along the way, and leave your wallet at home.” By 2015 ninety-eight percent of the U.S. and Canada will be covered with Supercharger Stations.

In 2010, Tesla was awarded a milestone-based loan, requiring matching private capital obtained via public offering, by the DOE as part of the Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing program. This program was signed into law by President Bush in 2008 and then awarded under the Obama administration in the years that followed. This program is often confused with the financial bailouts provided to the then bankrupt GM and Chrysler, who were ineligible for the Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing program, because a requirement of the ATVM program was good financial health. GM and Chrysler were far from being financially healthy.

Tesla was not the only automobile company to make use of the loan offer. Ford used the same program to take out a loan of 5.9 billion dollars. Nissan took out a loan for 1.6 billion dollars. But unlike Ford or Nissan, Tesla has already paid their loan off in full—with interest—and they did it nine years early.

The only down side to Tesla from my perspective is that I cannot afford to buy one. The base price of the vehicle is about 65 thousand dollars, with more reasonably equipped models going for closer to 90 thousand. If you are in the market for a high end car—such as some of the models offered by Audi, Mercedes, or Porsche, then the Tesla Model S is not out of line. For the rest of us, we will have to wait awhile. Tesla’s goal is to offer a more reasonably priced model in the 30 thousand dollar range within the next four years.

Another interesting thing about Tesla is that the company does not emphasize its environmental friendliness. Instead, they sell it on the basis of how it lowers the cost of car ownership: less maintenance and much, much lower fuel costs. And they emphasize that it is not just the best available electric car. It is simply the best available car, period—something that Consumer Reports and Motor Trend Magazine also emphasized. The fact that Tesla has no tailpipe or the emissions that come from one is just a happy bonus.

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Lost Things

My sense of direction is practically non-existent. For instance, there is a family from our church that I’ve known for more than twenty years. Can I find my way to their house? No. About three years ago I had come close to learning how to get to their home—but then they moved to a much nicer house on the other side of town. So I’m back to having no idea how to get to their place.

My sense of direction is so poor that my wife does most of the driving: otherwise I’d leave one day never be seen again: “Oh yes, he went to get some milk at the grocery store. He’s been gone for six months. He’ll probably make it home before the end of the year. It’s his way, you know.”

Once I do learn how to get somewhere—for instance to said grocery store—I will take the same route from then on. In fact, if I happen to be elsewhere in town and have a need to go to the grocery, then I will drive home first. Then from house I can find my way. I’ve learned only one way to get there. The phrase “you can’t get there from here” is the story of my lost life. Lost is a lifestyle. In fact, most of the time I don’t quite know where I am.

When I go to a store for the first time, I carefully contemplate which aisle I to park in, because from then on, I will park only in that aisle. How come? So I can find my car when I leave the store. Otherwise I’d have to wait for the store to close and for everyone to leave until mine was the only car left in the lot. And that doesn’t work if the store is open 24 hours.
But despite the fact that I am mostly unaware of my geographic location, when it comes to finding objects, unearthing lost things—I’m a miracle worker. Just today, my wife asked me “where’s the Raid—we’ve got a bunch of ants on the back patio.”

“You were the one who used it last,” I pointed out. “Remember, you found ants on the front porch yesterday and had me get it for you?”

“Um…”

“So where did you put it after that?”

“Didn’t I give it to you?”

“No.” A pause. “We’ve got ants. I need it.”

So I began the hunt for the can of Raid. It took me less than a minute to locate it. First, I checked the location where I normally put it. It wasn’t there. Then I thought about where my wife was likely to stash a can of bug spray without thinking. I looked under the kitchen sink. There it was.

This is a standard pattern in our home.

My youngest daughter will regularly complain, “I can’t find my iPod.”

I’ll ask about where she was when she last had it.

“I don’t know!” And then she’s mad at me.

So, I’ll begin excavating the black hole she calls her room. Normally I’ll find the lost item within a minute. Usually it’s hiding under a plate on her desk, or beneath a pile of shirts and shorts on her floor.
My oldest daughter will wonder where a book might be located. I’ll snag it in no time. My wife will wonder where the serving tray that we use once a year at Christmas time might be. I’ll have it on the kitchen counter within two minutes. My wife can’t find her keys, or can’t locate her shoes? A brief survey of the premises and I’ll have them in no time.

This ability to find things extends to other aspects of my existence. Someone will wonder where the Bible says something. They’ll give me a look. I’ll flip through the pages on my iPad. Within thirty seconds I can recite chapter and verse.

I’ve had friends call me on the phone and ask me “do you know the address of Art’s Bakery” or some such place. I’ll type a query into Google and have it for them in less than ten seconds. Or they’ll wonder about a phrase in Shakespeare or Milton, or be frustrated because they can’t find anything about a particular obscure topic in sociology that they need for their research paper that’s due tomorrow. Within moments I’ll have what they need.

For whatever reason I seem to be able to find things online that other people can’t. My wife recently wanted to find a book she only vaguely remembered from her childhood—something about a time traveling teacher. Based on her fuzzy recollection I located the book in less than five minutes and ordered her a copy. This, after she’d spent more than a year, off and on, unsuccessfully hunting for it.

But I find myself puzzled.

Why it is that I can snag the most obscure information in a snap, unearth lost keys and iPods, but I can’t I find my children’s school, the grocery store, or even my car in a parking lot?

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Waiting

Anticipation. There once was a ketchup commercial that was built upon having to wait a long time for the product to drip out of the bottle. The idea was that slow and thick meant it was better than competing brands. Waiting was proclaimed a good thing.

When I was a boy, looking forward to Christmas was something I did with much expectation and joy. I would lie under the tree every day staring at the ever increasing pile of colorful packages, trying to guess what might be there, wishing and wishing that the days would speed past and the happy morning would finally arrive. Far too early on Christmas morning, I would pop out of bed and rush to the lighted tree, encouraging my parents to get up. I could never understand why they wanted to sleep so long.

Now, as an adult I understand the desire to sleep, and I don’t look forward to Christmas so much as I did in the morning of my life–or at least not with anywhere near the same intensity. I do enjoy seeing the happiness of my children, their eager anticipation, and I like doing what I can to bring them pleasure on Christmas morning. They are always overjoyed and grateful—and the look in their faces reminds me of how I once felt. As a grownup, Christmas has become more a time of stress, of trying to get presents and cards—and wondering about being able to afford it all. Christmas is now just a disruption to the normal, predictable flow of monthly expenses. Still, I enjoy the season.

As an adult, there are other, much more unpleasant things to wait for: the front of the line at the DMV. Getting into the doctor’s office and actually seeing the doctor. Dentists. Getting service in a restaurant. Or finding what I need at Wal-Mart.

One of the new Super Wal-marts replaced our ordinary Wal-Mart over the summer. My wife and I had looked forward to its appearance for several reasons. First, it is much closer to my house than the grocery store we normally use. Second, the prices are considerably lower than said grocery store.

Unfortunately, the reality of our Super Wal-Mart has often been a disappointment: we have to wait in long lines, since they do not even have close to the necessary number of checkers. Worse, we have to wait to find the items we want to buy. And I’m not talking about odd or big ticket sorts of things. I’m talking about ordinary things like chicken flavor Top Ramen noodles and Campbell’s cream of broccoli soup. A mop bucket. An ordinary bulb for a flashlight. A whole month went by before buckets appeared on the shelf where the label said they were supposed to be. I’m still waiting for Top Ramen noodles and cream of broccoli soup to be regularly in stock. The empty shelves where the labels state they are supposed to be mock me every time I visit the store. Same with the light bulb for my flashlight. I complained to their customer service. They told me to complain to their corporate office. I have done so. And I continue, after a month, to wait for any kind of response from Wal-Mart, let alone to actually find what I want.

But there are also happy things to wait for as an adult: like the annual vacation. Or, on rare occasions, the realization of a life-time dream, as in 2008 I awaited the publication of my first book by a major publisher: Reader’s Digest Books. That book, The Bible’s Most Fascinating People, went on to be translated into 13 other languages, including two Dutch editions and then being reissued by a different American publisher in 2012.

Since then, I’ve had three other nonfiction books released. But the waiting continues. The life of a writer consists mostly of waiting. Publishers are never quick. I cool my heels sometimes for a very long while. It is not unusual to wait months, even a full year before a publisher gets back to me on a submission. And it isn’t always good news. Just because I’ve been published repeatedly, there’s never a guarantee that I’ll get published again. And so what do I do while I wait? I just keep on writing.

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Video Games

Last month was the thirty-second anniversary of the video game Pac-Man. It got me to reminiscing and thinking about my relationship with video games over the last three decades, especially since my thirtieth wedding anniversary is coming up later this month.

The first video game I ever played was shortly after I graduated from college. I had just finished my first year in my master’s program at UCLA. My roommate and I had gone to a pizza place and discovered a game called Asteroids. We dropped quite a number of quarters on it and made a point to play it any time we went out to pizza after that. It wasn’t long before we found more games, of course. By 1981 I had purchased my first home computer, a precursor to the Commodore 64 called the Commodore VIC-20. It came with a whopping 3 kilobytes of memory, expandable to 8 kilobytes. Pre-loaded with the BASIC programming language I soon learned how to program the machine.

There were but a handful of programs that you could purchase for computers in the early days and most came as cartridges that you plugged into the back of it. Eventually I added a tape drive that used ordinary cassette tapes to save and read programs. It was incredibly slow. dedicated computer monitors were a rarity. To use the computer, I hooked it up to a television turned to channel three.

I soon discovered computer magazines that had programs in them that you could type into the computer. Probably for the first ten years or so, even after I upgraded to a Commodore 64, the bulk of my time on the computer was spent typing in programs from the magazine. It was maddening, since typos were easy to create and you’d spend hours then trying to figure out what you’d done wrong. Until every last letter was typed just right in the program, the program would refuse to run or would run part way through before crashing. The first program I typed in to my VIC-20 was a baseball game. The player was a small glowing ball that blooped slowly around the bases when I got a hit.

Eventually I was able to upgrade to a floppy disk for my Commodore, which made the loading and saving of programs much, much faster and easier than the old tape drive. And by then, premade programs for my computer were becoming much more common.

Meanwhile, of course, I still spent time playing video games in the restaurants we frequented. By late 1981 I was dating the young woman who would become my wife, and many a date was spent playing video games after we had eaten our dinner.

My wife became especially fond of the game Ms. Pac-Man, an unauthorized sequel to the original Pac-Man. The original Pac-Man had been created by Namco, a company in Japan. Ms. Pac-Man was a bootlegged hack originally called Crazy Otto. Created by programmers employed by the General Computer Corporation, they eventually showed it to Midway, the American distributor of the original Pac-Man. So Midway bought the rights to it and the game became a big hit—and Namco became very angry. Eventually, to prevent the inevitable lawsuit that Namco would have brought, the rights to Ms. Pac Man were then turned over to Namco, which made a lot of money from my wife’s quarters.

My wife spent long hours playing Ms. Pac-man. When my wife’s friend Kayleen and her brother Chris were returning to Africa with their missionary parents, they spent an entire evening, well into the wee hours of the morning, playing an entire roll of quarters on Ms. Pac-Man. Given how good my wife and her friends had gotten at the game, it was a wonder they ever came home.

When my wife and I got married, we spent our honeymoon in Lake Tahoe. Unsurprisingly, for the two weeks we were there, we spent several evenings playing video games. The game we particularly enjoyed in Lake Tahoe was called Tempest. Like Ms. Pac-Man, it had been released in 1981.

After I finished my graduate program at UCLA, I got a Commodore 64 to replace my VIC-20. With 64 kilobytes of memory and much better graphics and sound capabilities, it turned out to be a great machine for playing video games. One of our favorites was a side scrolling 3-D game that we had originally played in the arcade: Zaxxon. It had first appeared in 1982 and was then ported to the Commodore in 1985. My wife and I and our friends spent many weekends playing the game. It was one of the few games I ever completely mastered.

Later, as we moved beyond the Commodore 64, we particularly enjoyed the early first-person shooters such as Castle Wofenstein, Doom, and its many sequels and knockoffs. Because of its humor, Duke Nuke’m 3-D became one of our favorites. Later, we became absorbed by Myst and its sequels.

Oddly enough, for the last fifteen years or so–maybe longer–I’ve played hardly any video games at all, while my wife mostly only plays Farmville on Facebook. Where before I had endless hours for video games, for some reason I now barely have time to work and read. I’m not quite sure where all my time has gone or why I seem to have so much less of it now than I did when I was younger. Probably has something to do with my children. Thankfully, if I ever do find my lost time, I’ve got Ms. Pac-Man, Tempest and Duke Nuke’m waiting for me on my X-Box 360–which is set to become obsolete when the new Xbox One comes out at the end of the year. I suppose the old classics will once again be made available for the newest hardware; after all, I can also play them on my iPAD–even Myst and the sequel Riven are on it. Of course, my children think the graphics are lame on all those old games. If I ever played any of them, they’d probably shake their heads laugh at me.

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Torino Scale

Most people, especially those of us living in California, have heard of the Richter Scale, which measures the intensity of Earthquakes.

Much less well known is the Torino Scale.

What is the Torino Scale? It is a scale designed to measure the danger posed by asteroids in their wandering orbits about the sun: the larger the number, the higher the likelihood that a given asteroid is going to smack into the planet.

No Hazard 0 (White Zone)

The likelihood of a collision is zero, or is so low as to be effectively zero. It also applies to small objects such as meteors and bodies that burn up in the atmosphere as well as infrequent meteorite falls that rarely cause damage.

Normal 1 (Green Zone)

A routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is nonexistent.

Meriting Attention by Astronomers 2 (Yellow Zone)

A discovery, which may become routine with expanded searches, of an object making a somewhat close but not highly unusual pass near the Earth. While meriting attention by astronomers, there is no cause for public attention or public concern as an actual collision is very unlikely. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to re-assignment to Level 0.

3

A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.

4

A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of regional devastation. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.

Threatening 5 (Orange Zone)

A close encounter posing a serious, but still uncertain threat of regional devastation. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than a decade away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted.

6

A close encounter by a large object posing a serious, but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. Critical attention by astronomers is needed to determine conclusively whether or not a collision will occur. If the encounter is less than three decades away, governmental contingency planning may be warranted.

7

A very close encounter by a large object, which if occurring this century, poses an unprecedented but still uncertain threat of a global catastrophe. For such a threat in this century, international contingency planning is warranted, especially to determine urgently and conclusively whether or not a collision will occur.

Certain Collisions 8 (Red Zone)

A collision is certain, capable of causing localized destruction for an impact over land or possibly a tsunami if close offshore. Such events occur on average between once per 50 years and once per several 1000 years.

9

A collision is certain, capable of causing unprecedented regional devastation for a land impact or the threat of a major tsunami for an ocean impact. Such events occur on average between once per 10,000 years and once per 100,000 years.

10

A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean. Such events occur on average once per 100,000 years, or less often.

On the Thursday before Christmas 2004, asteroid 2004 MN4 was given a 2 on the Torino Scale, when preliminary measurements indicated it had a 1 in 300 chance of hitting the Earth. By the day after Christmas, the odds had dropped to 1 in 40 and it had risen on the scale to 4. Asteroid MN4 was about 1300 feet across (the asteroid that made the mile wide crater in Arizona that is now a tourist attraction was only about 150 feet across). Upon impact, it would have released 2200 megatons of energy. The largest nuclear device ever exploded on Earth so far was only 50 megatons. Based on preliminary calculations it looked as if asteroid 2004 MN4 was going to hit on April, Friday the thirteenth, 2029—only sixteen years from now.

By the next Monday, however, with more orbital data having come in, the scientists at NASA and a laboratory in Italy were able to determine that the asteroid’s orbit was not a danger to Earth at all and so there was nothing to worry about, at least from this asteroid. It dropped to 0 on the Torino Scale.

What one can worry about are all the asteroids that haven’t been discovered yet—like the one that smashed into Russia recently while everyone was looking at another asteroid that was swinging perilously close.

But the funding for looking out for passing space rocks is not large and it will likely be decades before all the potentially dangerous asteroids have been tracked and cataloged. So for now, we can predict large meteor strikes about as well as we can predict earthquakes. Asteroids are God’s way of asking us, “So how’s that space program of yours coming along? Might want to speed it up a bit, don’t you think?”

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Emailed Gossip

Someone I know copied an email she got this week and then sent it to me. It had dire warnings in it about a nefarious plot to cancel a certain beloved television show because of its religious content. Unfortunately, there is no such plot and the show in question is not in danger.

The email was an example of what the folklorist Jan Harold Brunvand has called an “urban legend.” We’ve probably all read one or heard one, whether it was a badly mimeographed letter warning us that a well-known corporation was run by a devil-worshipper, or that deep fried rats have been found in buckets of fast-food chicken. And they are usually come from someone we trust, who insists that “my friend’s cousin knew the guy this happened to.”

Urban legends are, in essence, simply a form of gossip. The book of Proverbs in the Bible says that “The words of a gossip are like choice morsels; they go down to a man’s inmost parts.” And so we find such juicy tidbits of information very satisfying. They feed our fears and our hopes. They sound so good that they must be true, like the story of the woman who decided after washing her poodle that she’d dry it off in the microwave. Her results were not what she hoped. Of course, such a thing never happened, but what pleasure we get in sharing the tale!

Brunvand has collected the more common urban legends into a series of books with titles like, Curses! Broiled Again, The Vanishing Hitchhiker, and The Choking Doberman. He carefully documents them, where they first arose, and demonstrates their falsity. Additionally, websites such as snopes.com list hundreds of examples of such urban legends, documenting them in ways similar to what Brunvand does. The stories, unsurprisingly, get rewritten over the years, with name changes and other alterations of details to fit changing cultural sensibilities.

Most urban legends are just funny, or perhaps give some sort of warning to inspire better behavior and so are harmless. But sometimes urban legends can be damaging. For instance, back during the 2000 election, many people were claiming that Al Gore’s book, Earth in the Balance, had the following quote on page 342: “Refusing to accept the earth as our sacred mother, these Christians have become a dangerous threat to the survival of humanity. They are the blight on the environment and to believe in Bible prophecy is unforgivable.” Of course in reality, Gore’s book nowhere contains such a quotation, nor would he, as a Christian, be reasonably expected to ever write such nonsense. But since most people never bothered to actually pick up his book and turn to the cited page, the lie circulated widely. Similar lies were told about George W. Bush and are now being told about Barack Obama.

Likewise, during a photo opportunity at a 1988 grocers’ convention, the first President George Bush was supposedly “amazed” at encountering supermarket scanners for the first time. This story was repeated numerous times by major news outlets to try to demonstrate how out of touch the now former president Bush was–and yet it wasn’t true at all! Later retractions by the newspapers which started the gossip never got the same traction as the original tidbit.

Some urban legends are dire warnings: don’t flash your lights at an approaching car. Gang members are known to shoot people who do that.

Um, no.

Urban legends often take on a life of their own, just like other forms of gossip. And even when confronted that a certain tale isn’t true, the gossiper will insist, “well, it’s consistent with what I know of him and while in this instance maybe it never happened, still, I know he does things just like that.” Regarding the health or safety warnings, the gossips will tell me, “well, it’s still good to know.” How? It’s not true. Why do I need to know it? Or they’ll say, “better safe than sorry.” Um, again, no. If it’s a lie, it’s not helpful at all and doesn’t make me safer.

Gossip hurts people. It’s never beneficial. Proverbs also warns us that, “a gossip separates close friends” and “without wood a fire goes out; without gossip a quarrel dies down.” Next time you hear a story that you just know has to be true, or you get an email from someone you trust, who swears that he got the story from someone who knows the person it happened to, be a bit skeptical. Perhaps take a look at some of Brunvand’s books in the library, or run a search on the web. It’s not hard. Spend the extra two minutes before you post something juicy. You don’t want to be spreading gossip, now do you?

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The Trip

Last spring I went to visit my parents in Ohio. It had been a long time since I had seen them, though my mom calls me on the phone at least once a month. I had not flown in an airplane in more than twenty years before I flew last spring. And with all the issues that my youngest daughter has experienced over the past eighteen months, I’ve not had even an afternoon off for the longest time. Thus, it was a big surprise when, for my birthday, my wife and children gave me plane tickets to fly to Ohio to visit my parents for a week. It was my middle daughter’s idea: “You haven’t seen your mom and dad in more than five years. You need to see them!”

My initial reaction at the thought of being away from my wife and children for such a long time was stress. How would everyone get along without me? But my wife had scheduled my trip well: it would happen during spring break, so both she and the children would be home.

Any realistic worries I might have were non-existent. But I’ve never been all that fond of travel, though once I get to where I’m going, I usually have a good time. It’s just thinking about the trip that bothers me.

I had about two weeks to prepare mentally for being gone. I also had to get ready and packed for the trip: for instance, I had to acquire a case for my notebook computer and find a carryon bag for my clothing. The airline I’d be taking charged extra for checking luggage—and I didn’t want to pay for that.

My flight was scheduled to leave Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) at 5:45 AM on a Saturday morning. The original plan was simply to arise rather early that morning. But a week before I left for the trip, I’d done my mother-in-law’s taxes for her on her computer. I e-filed them and imagined I was all done. But thanks to a glitch in the program, the IRS kicked the return back. So I was going to have re-send them.

We decided I’d do that on our way to the airport, since my mother-in-law’s house was on the way there. We left my home in Lancaster, California at 11:00 PM for the two hour drive. It didn’t take me long to fix her tax return. In fact, the bulk of my time was simply spent waiting for her tax program to install updates. Soon enough, we were out of there and eating an early breakfast at a nearby diner.

The actual process of airline travel began with my arrival at the airport at 4 AM. Ticketing was easy: I already had an e-ticket on my cellphone, so there was no paper to worry about losing and no line to wait in. I just pulled out my phone and the airline happily scanned it.

However, though I escaped waiting to get a ticket, not all queuing was eliminated. There was still the matter of the security check by the Transportation Safety Administration. This was more time consuming and complicated than I had anticipated. For instance, I discovered that they expected me to undress and unpack all my luggage.

Perhaps a slight exaggeration. But all passengers were required to take off jackets, remove belts, empty their pockets and take off their shoes. Then we had to remove our medications, computers, and tiny containers of shampoo and deodorant from our luggage. We put everything into large plastic bins. While our belongings rode a conveyor belt through an x-ray machine, we passengers were taken through an imposing set of archways. Then, as if we were being arrested, we were told to assume the position: we spread our legs and put our hands up over our heads as our bodies were carefully scanned and examined.

The process is quiet and subdued. No one smiles, hardly anyone talks, but the TSA agents were polite enough. I had plenty of time to repack and get dressed before I had to get on the plane. I wandered down the aisle, stowed my luggage in an overhead bin, and found my seat. I was exhausted, but hopeful. My wife had told me, “You’ll be able to snooze on the plane.”

Not really.

I was in a middle seat, scrunched between a child and an overweight man, with no leg room.

After a four hour sleepless flight, I had to change planes in Detroit. In 50 minutes. It took me thirty just to run from the farthest gate in one terminal to the furthest gate in another, on the opposite side of the runway. Worn out and sweaty, I was the last person aboard: they slammed the doors and headed out within minutes of me plopping into my seat.

Thankfully the return flight did not begin so early in the morning. My layover in Detroit was much longer so I didn’t have to run. I didn’t have to do anyone’s taxes before I went to the airport.

And my parents were very happy to see me.

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Titanic

When the traditional day for our taxes being due arrived last year, some of us remembered the 100th anniversary of another disaster: the sinking of the Titanic on a dark and cold night. Somewhere in the North Atlantic in that same year, 1309 passengers sailed a luxury liner on a 12 day journey repeating the route of that fabled vessel, minus the iceberg. In the theaters, the Oscar winning movie by James Cameron, which brought in 1.8 billion dollars on its first go around, reappeared in 3-D. My wife already made a point to see it in a premier showing in our local theater, while my youngest daughter and I re-watched it on DVD.

Artifacts from the long-sunk ship are being auctioned for exorbitant sums, while several books on the ship’s fateful voyage are scheduled for publication. Right now I’m nearly finished reading a novel of alternate history science fiction about a failed attempt to prevent its sinking by a time traveler. Written by David Kowalski, The Company of the Dead describes how a time traveler’s attempts to stop the sinking result not in saving the ship, but merely in it hitting a second iceberg after missing the first. The ship still sinks, but different people survive. The history of the world is radically changed: the United States never enters the First World War, so Germany wins. The world of 2012 looks nothing at all like the world we know and is blundering into a war of nuclear devastation. A group from the alternate reality attempt to go back to the time of the Titanic’s sinking to prevent the time traveler from preventing the sinking. It’s a fascinating book for person who majored in history in college who also happens to be a science fiction fan.

The Titanic sinking resulted in the loss of many lives. But there have been far worse disasters in world history, disasters that we barely think about now. The Japanese slaughtered 800,000 civilians in Nanking in 1938. Thousands died in the San Francisco earthquake of 1906. And yet, for some reason, the sinking of the Titanic has captured our interest in a unique way that other disasters have not. I wondered why—and have come up with a handful of possible reasons.

One: it was the maiden voyage of the ship. For whatever reason, we don’t expect something to go wrong with something like an ocean liner on its first trip. This, despite the fact that we are surprised if the first attempt at launching a new rocket goes well and we consider being a test pilot for a new aircraft a very dangerous job.

Two: the hubris inherent in the attitudes of those who built and took passage on the voyage. The Titanic was described as “unsinkable.” And in keeping with that attitude, the number of lifeboats was only enough for half the passengers on the ship. It guaranteed that if their belief in the ship’s unsinkability was wrong, then half the passengers would die.

Three: the Titanic, in some sense, stands as a symbol for the end of an era, and the end of a way of looking at the world. World War I, the Great War, the war to end all wars was on the horizon in 1912. The optimism of an era that was seriously wounded with the sinking of the Titanic suffered a mortal blow with the Great War that began in 1914. The war saw millions of young men brutally killed with new weapons and techniques, while the great empires and kingdoms collapsed. When the Titanic set sail, monarchs ruled Europe. Within six years, most of those monarchs were either dead or in exile. Russia had gone communist, the Kaiser of Germany went into exile, the Hapsburg rule over the Austrian Empire ended—as did the empire. The Ottoman Empire ceased to exist with Turkey and other small nations—many now controlled by the victors of the war—arising in its stead. All was in turmoil. The sensible, orderly, optimistic world had sunk. The “war to end all wars” soon became nothing but a joke, a lying farce, when conflict increased. The voyage of the Titanic was the last moment of a serene, ideal world of order and supposed grace. It became a picture of what the world had done to itself. In some ways, the Titanic divides the nineteenth from the twentieth century, just as September 11, 2001 serves more to divide the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. Such events change how people see their world; they alter their perceptions of reality. Events are what divide times, rather than the arbitrary numbers of a calendar.

For my wife, she sees something “romantic” in the sad story of the Titanic. Like many people, she enjoys tragic love stories like Romeo and Juliet, where the lovers die in the end. The Titanic, thus, is the ultimate tragic love story: men and women are separated by the impossible circumstances. The men gallantly give up their lives to save their wives and children, forcing them into the lifeboats, parting forever.

Why does that image from the Titanic wrench romantic feelings from us?

We all want to believe that our loved ones would be willing to give up everything for us, even their lives. And we all wish to think that we would be willing to give up everything for our loved ones. The actions of the men aboard the Titanic demonstrate the overwhelming power of true love: it is a picture of our greatest longing. In the Titanic, we see our best selves. And so, we cannot forget the story of that tragic ship.

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